Office for Budget Responsibility: economic and fiscal outlook
The Stationery Office, Nov 29, 2011 - Business & Economics - 194 pages
This economic and fiscal outlook sets out the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast for the period to 2016-17. The economy has grown less strongly than forecast in March primarily because higher-than-expected inflation has squeezed household incomes and consumer spending. The eurozone crisis has impacted on business and consumer confidence. Consequently the OBR has revised it growth forecasts downwards. It expects the underlying momentum of the economy to pick up through 2012 but with the headline measure of GDP broadly flat until the second half. The central forecast is now for 0.7 per cent growth in GDP in 20102, 2.1 per cent in 2013, 2.7 per cent in 2014, and 3 per cent in 2015 and 2016. Public sector net borrowing (PSNB) is expected to total £127 this year (8.4 per cent of GDP), but the downward revision of growth forecasts means the deficit will shrink less quickly over the next five years, with a forecast £53 billion PSNB (2.9 per cent of GDP) in 2015-16. Unemployment is expected to rise further to 8.7 per cent in 2012 before falling back to 6.2 per cent by 2016. The OBR estimates that the Government has a roughly 60 per cent of meeting its mandate to balance the structural or cyclically-adjusted current budget by 2016-17. The central economic and fiscal forecasts assume that the euro area finds a way through its current crisis, but a more disorderly outcome is clearly a significant risk.
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Developments since the March 2011 forecast
Performance against the Governments fiscal targets
Annex A Autumn Statement 2011 policy measures
Other editions - View all
0.5 per cent adjustment aggregate composite assets assumed assumption Autumn Statement average forecast Bank Bank of England CACB capital cent of GDP central forecast Chart claimant count corporation tax council tax CPI inflation credit conditions cyclical cyclically-adjusted current budget earnings growth economic determinants economy effect estimate euro area European Commission fall financial sector fiscal forecast fiscal mandate forecast in March forecast period fuel duty GDP deflator GDP growth gilt rates growth rate higher HM Treasury HMRC impact included increase interest rates investment March EFO March forecast medium term methodological changes NAIRU National Accounts nominal GDP outlook output gap Outturn Forecast pension policy measures potential output growth PSCE in RDEL PSNB PSND public finances public sector quarter of 201 reduce reflects scenario sector net borrowing share of GDP Spend Spend Spend surplus Table tax credits tax receipts third quarter unemployment weaker