## Oil Shocks and the Demand for ElectricityForecasts the demand for oil in the U.S. |

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ACTUAL DATA annual growth rates autoregressive Bureau of Labor Business Cycle coefﬁcient correlated CPI Detailed Reports demand for electricity demand model dependent variables Dickey-Fuller test DNdT dNST Dummy Dumy Durbin h Econometric Edison Electric Institute electricity demand equation Electricity Sales energy EX-POST FORECASTING explanatory variables Figure ﬁrst forecasted growth rates forecasts for 2000 fuel oil GNP equation Gross National Product HT model Labor Statistics LGNP Ljung Box LKWH logarithm of sales LPEL LPFO LPNG mean squared error mm.o mN.O natural gas equation Nelson and Peck NMl model oil price shock OOO'T HMXT parameter Price Equation price of electricity price of fuel price of oil Price Oil R—Sq real GNP real price root mean squared sales of electricity SAS Institute Scenario SEMTSA FORECASTS Series Models Sign Change speciﬁcation standard error Std Error Table A1 trend U.S. Department umom xm Zellner