Oil Windfalls: Blessing Or Curse?
This book assesses the full impact of oil windfalls on six developing producer countries - Algeria, Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. This is the first time that the issue has been systematically analysed and related to economics policies and underlying macroeconomic characteristics. The book adopts a broad approach, blending institutional and political aspects with quantitative analysis which includes the results of sophisticated model simulations. It presents new information on how oil discoveries have been used by producer governments, and analyses of the consequences. Finally it concludes that much of the potential benefit to producers has been dissipated, and explains why producers may actually end up worse off despite revenue gains.
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Theoretical Approaches to the Analysis of Windfall Effects
The Record and
The Magnitude and Uses of the Oil Windfalls 197481
Sectoral Shifts Real Exchange Rates and
Windfalls and Growth
The Downside of the Cycle
Summary of Findings
Macroeconomic Responses to the Oil Windfalls 197481
Adjustment in the Downturn 198285
Distribution of Benefits
The Second Oil Shock 197981 and Its Aftermath
The Role of Gas
absorption adjustment agricultural Algeria average billion capital chapter consumer consumption costs deficit demand domestic Dutch disease Ecuador effective exchange rate estimated expenditures factors factors of production fiscal growth rate impact important increased Indonesia industry inflation infrastructure interest rates labor linkage macroeconomic manufacturing ment Nigeria nomic non-oil economy non-oil gdp non-oil taxes nonmining gdp nontraded sectors oil exporters oil income oil prices oil revenues oil shock oil windfall opec output Ov Ov percent of gdp percent of nonmining period Pertamina plants political private sector production projects public investment public sector public spending real effective exchange real exchange rate real wages relative price rent rice rise rose rural sample countries saved abroad share shift strategy subsidies Suharto Sukarno tion tive traded sectors Trinidad and Tobago urban Venezuela windfall gains World Bank
Page 343 - Re/tort of the Commission of Inquiry into the Civil Disturbances which occurred in certain parts of the Western State of Nigeria in the month of December 1968 (Ibadan, 1969).
Page 341 - JP Neary and S. Van Wijnbergen, "Can An Oil Discovery Lead to a Recession? A Comment on Eastwood and Venables," Economic Journal, June 1984, pp.
Page 345 - ... Agricultural Sector." In Romeo M. Bautista and Seiji Naya, eds., Energy and Structural Change in the Asia-Pacific Region: Papers and Proceedings of the Thirteenth Pacific Trade and Development Conference, 51-72. Manila: Philippine Institute for Development Studies and the Asian Development Bank. . 1985. "The Role of Price Policy in Rice Production in Indonesia, 1968-1982.