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accession countries assessment asterisk indicates significance Austria Bayoumi and Eichengreen Belgium Circle distance coefficient column confidence interval CPB Discussion Paper current EU members current members distance variable economic elasticity of substitution Energy-intensive Products equilibrium model estimated dummies estimated gravity equations estimation results Europe Agreements Fabricated Metal Products Fidrmuc Financial Services Finland gravity model Greece and Germany GTAP Hague Telephone 31 Head and Mayer impact of accession industry level internal market accession intra-EU trade exceeds July 2002 ISBN Keuschnigg Lejour lower trade costs Luxembourg Machinery and Equipment membership Mooij Netherlands NTB frequency ratios OECD P.J.G. Tang P.O. Box per-capita income potential trade increase reduction Research Memoranda rest CEEC rest EFTA Richard Nahuis robustness analysis sector's value added service sectors shock of accession single market access Single Market program Sjef Ederveen tariff equivalents Telefax 31 Textiles and Leather trade barriers trade expansion Transport and Communication Transport Equipment turn significant valorem tariff-equivalent