Opinion Polls: History, Theory and Practice
Opinion Polls provides a comprehensive exposition of the history and purpose of opinion polls, covering both theory and practice. It is written by an insider who has worked for over twenty years in the field, and thus draws on a wide range of practical experience. Polls were very much in the news after the 1992 and 1997 general elections, and the book discusses all the possible theories for the errors in 1992, examines the various changes in methodology to try and remove those errors, and evaluates their success in 1997. The book consists of three principal, interwoven strands: the history and development of opinion polling; the survey research theory which lies behind polls; and the methodology used in practice by the polls.
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1992 general election Actual and predicted actual result analysis answer approach areas asked Average error ballot bias biased Britain British by-election chance Chapter Conservative lead constituency Daily discussed effect election polls election result electoral estimate exit poll exit-poll fieldwork figures final polls Gallup Harris hour inter John Major Labour lead Liberal Democrat Literary Digest major market research Market Research Society Marplan means measure methodology MORI newspapers NOP's number of interviews omnibus survey opinion polls past voting political polling districts polling station polls conducted pollsters population possible pre-election polls precincts predicted results prediction polls private polling problem public opinion questionnaire quota sampling random sampling reason refusals respondents sampling error seats simple simple random sample survey Table technique telephone theory tion Tories turnout undecided variables vote Conservative voters voting behaviour voting intention voting question voting-intention question wards weighting whole