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Oil Related Uncertainty
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absence of oil annuity value approximations assuming assumption Benchmark Model bequest motive certainty equivalence consider convenience yield correction factors Abu Cp,t decreases denotes derive elasticity of substitution equal evaluate figure shows follows a geometric forecast fraction of non-oil Furthermore future income future prices geometric random walk government expenditures income effect income uncertainty initial financial assets instantaneous utility interest rate intuition Kalman Kalman Filter Lemma linear non-oil GDP non-oil income Non-oil Production Note to Figure oil follows oil prices follow oil production oil wealth optimal consumption path optimal fiscal policy optimal paths paper partial adjustment period permanent oil income Pindyck POIM policy instruments precautionary saving price of oil price process private income private sector Proof random walk hypothesis remains constant resource Ricardian equivalence risk aversion sample shocks Social Welfare Function spot price stabilization fund stationary process stochastic process taxes transitory trend zero