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Brazil Mexico and Turkey
What if the Exchange Rate Had Been More or Less Flexible? A Counterfactual
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1.65 times standard 90 percent confidence adverse shock bank's capital account shocks Capital Inflows capital market shocks central bank choice of exchange confidence bands 1.65 counterfactual exchange rate different from zero domestic economy Dotted lines indicate Economic Activity effects EMBI emerging market exchange depreciation exchange market pressure exchange rate absorbed exchange rate flexibility exchange rate policy exchange rate regime external capital account external shocks fiscal deficit foreign reserves Impluse impulse response indicate 90 percent indicator of exchange industrialized countries inflation interest rate movements International Financial Statistics International Monetary Fund international reserves key domestic variables later lags later period Leiderman lines indicate 90 Mexico and Turkey monetary base output growth paper parameters percent confidence bands pick their poison post-crisis period pre-crisis period rate and exchange rate regime affects rate series 60b.z reserve flows Section Simulated standard error statistically different structural vector autoregression supply shock variance ratio statistic vector autoregression SVAR