Prediction of Recreational Traffic Flow: A Time Series Analysis Approach

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Maryland State Highway Administration, 1983 - Traffic estimation - 169 pages
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A set of traffic flow prediction models was developed for recreational travel on the Maryland Eastern Shore network. These time series models apply the Box-Jenkins technique to describe and predict the traffic volumes in order to implement the appropriate traffic control strategy early enough before any queues develop. Each model describes the predicted one-way traffic volume at a specific point on the highway, utilizing reported volume counts at the same point and the same day, plus other counts of prior weeks. The developed models had adequate temporal and spatial stability and provided significantly more precision than models developed with other methodologies, such as regression analysis.

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Contents

INTRODUCTION
1
ESTIMATION DIAGNOSTIC CHECKING OF MODELS
21
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
39

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