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Rationality in Presence of Exogenous Variables
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14 experiments 20 periods adaptive and extrapolative Adaptive Expectations adaptive model aggregate forecasts average and median average forecasts bang-bang binomial test coefficient coefficient of determination CONCEPTS PERIODS 21-END conditional expectation contemporary influence delta-expected changes denotes deviations from rational DEVIATIONS FROM VARIOUS Durbin-Watson statistics EDAp EMAp exogenous variables extrapolative behavior F for H0 forecast error forecasted changes full information incomplete-information experiments individual forecasts information on exogenous lagged influence MADR majority of subjects mean absolute deviations mean deviations median forecasts misspecified expected changes misspecified predictions modulo negative null hypothesis number of individuals number of subjects observed forecasts participants PERIODS 21-END SUBJ PREDICTION CONCEPTS PERIODS prominence level pt-i quantitative statements rational predictions regression results rejected resp seasonality experiments signif subjects in Exp Tabie Total(2 true model unbiasedness unchanged opinions underestimating delta predictions underestimating predictions underestimation of changes underlying model unlearning VARIOUS PREDICTION CONCEPTS volatile variable