Preventive measures: building risk assessment and crisis early warning systems
State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiting major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peacful transformation. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations.
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Structural Indicators and Risk Assessment Models
Early Warning Research for U
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Abkhazia Accel accelerators Africa agencies analysis analytical approach Bosnia Burundi capacity chapter civil cluster coding conflict early warning Congo/Zaire countries crisis Croatia database dataset decision makers democide discrimination displaced persons dynamic early warning model Early Warning System economic effective emergency environmental ethnic event data example expert external factors failure famine food security forecast foreign GEDS genocide GIEWS global Gurr Harff HEWS human rights violations Human Rights Watch identify increase indicators instability interaction internal displacement intervention issues KEDS military Minorities at Risk monitoring natural capital NGOs nonviolent operational organizations PANDA pattern Peace Peter Brecke phase PIOOM political politicides population potential preventive action problem Project rebellion regime regional ReliefWeb reports response risk assessments Rohingya Rwanda sector situation Slovenia sources specific structural tion trigger Tutsi types UNHCR United Nations UNOCHA variables violence wars World