Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy

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L. Alan Winters, David Sapsford
Cambridge University Press, Mar 8, 1990 - Business & Economics - 310 pages
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Commodity markets are of considerable interest and importance to economists, econometricians and dealers. This book reports the proceedings of a major international conference on Primary Commodity Prices: Economic Models and Policy, held in London under the auspices of the Centre for Economic Policy Research in March 1989. A range of papers by leading international authorities cover topics such as expectations formation in econometric commodity market models; price determination in the market for aluminium; the estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational expectations; the prices of perennial crops; modeling the effects of foreign and domestic policies on agricultural prices; exchange rate volatility and commodity prices; long-run influences on petroleum prices; price stabilization versus financing in commodity policy; and a comparison of forward markets and buffer stocks as commodity earnings stabilizers. A key feature of this book is its development of the policy implications of recent theoretical and empirical work in the field of commodity economics. Most papers are accompanied by discussants' comments to draw out their technical and policy implications, and the editors also provide a detailed policy introduction.
 

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Contents

Estimation of dynamic disequilibrium models with rational
21
Summary of general discussion
42
the role of rational expectations
72
Modelling the interactive effects of alternative sets of policies
105
Price determination in the market for aluminium
134
Longrun factors in oil price formation
157
The role of futures markets as stabilizers of commodity
183
Primary commodity prices and exchangerate volatility
213
Discussion
233
price stabilization versus financing
240
Summary and policy conclusions
283
Index
305
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