Red Rogue: The Persistent Challenge of North Korea
In "Red Rogue," Bruce Bechtol analyzes the changing nature of North Korea's national defense, foreign policy, and illicit economic activities in the post-9/11 era. He describes how North Korea has adapted to a changing global and regional environment to ensure regime survival and has often dictated the agenda in East Asia. Bechtol explains why North Korea frequently resorts to brinkmanship and provocations as foreign policy tools and why North Korea remains a threat to the United States and South Korea. After a detailed discussion of North Korea's internal politics and foreign policy, "Red Rogue" examines the diverging U.S. and South Korean assessments of security on the peninsula, the health of the rapidly changing South Korea-U.S. alliance, and the badly deteriorated South Korean civil-military relationship. Using a framework that focuses on diplomatic, informational, military, and economic instruments of national power, the author reveals the dynamic and complicated challenges for security and stability on the Korean Peninsula. The reader will gain a clear perspective of the paradigm shifts in U.S., South Korean, and North Korean policies in recent years. The book is essential reading for scholars, policymakers, military strategists, and anyone who has an interest in East Asian affairs.
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Framework of Analysis
Research Strategies and Sources
Outline of Chapters
CONTROVERSY AND BRINKMANSHIP
Can Kim Maintain South Korean Efforts at Reconciliation and Economic Support?
Can North Korea Maintain Momentum in Alienating the South Korean Public from the ROKUS Alliance?
Can Kim Control the Regime Succession Progress?
Can Kim Continue the Isolation and Control of the North Korean Populace?
Can Kim Maintain the Loyalty of the Second and ThirdTier Leadership?
Can Pyongyang Successfully Reinstitute the Public Distribution System?
Can Kim Maintain His Nuclear Programs in Face of International Pressure?
Can Pyongyang Continue its Illicit Activities and Proliferation?
North Koreas HEU Program
Nuclear Challenges in the Post911 Era
Challenges and Disappointments
Washington Seoul and a Nuclear North Korea
North Koreas Nuclear Test
Resumption of the SixParty Talks
Difficulties in Abandoning the Nuclear Program
PROLIFERATION DEPLOYMENT TESTING AND TOOLS OF FOREIGN POLICY
North Koreas Proliferation of Missiles
The Militar Threat from Pyongyangs Missile Arsenal
Intentions and Motivations
REALITIES THE EVOLVING DOCTRINE READINESS AND CAPABILITIES OF NORTH KOREAS CONVENTIONAL FORCES
Evolution of the Military Threat16
Special Operations Forces
Motivations for Maintaining Conventional Forces
THE NORTHERN LIMIT LINE INCIDENT OF 20021
Intentional or Unintentional?
Origins of the Attack
Motivations for the Attack
Implications of the NLL Incident of 2002
NORTH KOREAS ILLICIT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
Illicit Operations and Money Laundering
Illegal Drug Operations
Counterfeit Currency Operations
Profitibility of the Family Kim Industries
Seouls 20052006 Politics and Pyongyang
Countering Illicit Operations
OVERARCHING CHALLENGES AND MOTIVATIONS FOR THE KIM CHONGIL GOVERNMENT IN THE POST911 ERA
Can Kim Maintain His Militar With Drastically Limited Resources?
Can Kim Maintain Support From China?
Can Pyongyang Repair DPRKJapan Relations?
CHALLENGES FOR THE ROKUS ALLIANCE IN THE POST911 ERA1
Security Policies of the Roh Administration
The New Roh Doctrine?
Possible Alliance Alternatives
Current Strengths and Weaknesses of the ROKUS Alliance
Primary Challenges Facing the Security Policy Initiative
Sweeping Military Reforms in South Korea
Wartime Operational Control
THE IMPACT ON NORTHSOUTH RELATIONS AND THE ROKUS ALLIANCE1
The Historical Impact of CivilMilitary Relations on the Roh Administration
Strengths and Weaknesses that Roh Moohyun Brought to His Presidency
Roh Moohyuns DecisionMaking Process
The 2004 Naval Incident
The Vision of the National Security Council
The Future of CivilMilitary Reform
Altering the CivilMilitary Relationship
THE IMPACT OF THE POST911 ERA ON KOREAN SECURITY
North Koreas Use of Diplomacy in the Post911 Era
North Koreas Use of Information as a Tool of Coercion
Threat or Nuisance?
An Instrument of National Power?
The ROKUS Alliance and the Foreign Policy of Washington and Seoul
Implications for the Future
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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analysis April Ballistic Missile Blue House Brian Lee brinkmanship capability challenges China Chosun Ilbo conducted continue December discussed dismantlement Donga Ilbo DPRK drug February foreign policy HEU program http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news http://english.donga.com/srv illegal illicit activities important incident International issue January Japan Joongang Ilbo July June Kim Chong-il regime Kim’s Korean Peninsula launch Lee Jong-seok maintain March military forces Minister Ministry of National missile programs National Assembly National Defense National Security Nautilus Institute No-Dong North Korea North Korea’s illicit North Korea’s Missile North Korea’s nuclear North Korean government North Korean ship Northern Limit Line November nuclear weapons October officials operations political President Roh proliferation Pyongyang regarding region Report reportedly Republic of Korea Roh administration Roh Moo-hyun Roh’s ROK–U.S. Alliance SCUD Seoul six-party talks South Korean military statement Strategic Taepo-Dong threat troops U.S. forces Unification United Uri Party USFK wartime Washington Yoon