Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund, Jul 5, 2012 - Business & Economics - 38 pages
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the economic and financial ties between Poland and the euro area and analyzes the associated spillovers. It documents stylized facts about trade, vertical integration, foreign direct investment, and banking system linkages between Poland and core euro area countries. The impact of shocks originating from the euro area on economic developments in Poland is quantified using two methods, namely a vector auto-regression model and a small-open-economy quarterly projection model.
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40 Quarter Area Premium Shock area’s baseline business cycle ﬂuctuations c,EU central bank cispl'll Core inﬂation cross-country deviation Domestic Output Gap Domestic Policy downturn driving Poland’s equation relates equilibrium exchange rate equilibrium values ESt+1 estimate Euro Area Premium exchange rate gap external factors External Finance Premium Figure ﬁnance ﬁnancial channels ﬁnancial crisis ﬁnancial shock foreign Global Projection Model GPM simulation historical shock decomposition inﬁation inﬂation target inﬂuence insensitive to changes interbank rate International Monetary Fund lagged value monetary policy transmission NBP’s nominal exchange rate nominal interest rate OMOs overnight persistent shock Poland’s business cycle Policy delay policy rate policy transmission mechanism Polish POLONIA spread Quarter after shock rate movements real exchange rate Redistribution reduced the policy relatively insensitive RER Depreciation QoQ Responses to Euro scenario shock Inflation QoQ shock persistence shock Qualter shock Source short-term nominal interest spillover parameter Stronger Spillover tar,EU trade and ﬁnancial unemployment gap