Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund, Jul 5, 2012 - Business & Economics - 38 pages
This Selected Issues Paper focuses on the economic and financial ties between Poland and the euro area and analyzes the associated spillovers. It documents stylized facts about trade, vertical integration, foreign direct investment, and banking system linkages between Poland and core euro area countries. The impact of shocks originating from the euro area on economic developments in Poland is quantified using two methods, namely a vector auto-regression model and a small-open-economy quarterly projection model.
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40 Quarter Area Premium Shock area to Poland area’s banking system business cycle central bank credit risk CZE HUN POL deposit deviation band EURIBOR-OIS Euro area Euro Area Premium European Central Bank exchange rate exports external factors external finance premium financial channels Financial Linkages financial shock foreign frontloading funding GARCH Global Projection Model GPM simulation growth spillovers hoard liquidity IMF staff estimates IMF Working Paper impact increase inﬂows inﬂuence interbank market interbank rate interest rate International Monetary Fund Lehman Brothers Liquidity demand Liquidity supply monetary policy NBP’s FX purchases negative spread OMOs output gap overnight percent of GDP persistence Poland’s economy policy rate Polish banking POLONIA rate POLONIA Spread percentage Prati Quarter alter shock reﬂecting regular fine-tuning operations reserve maintenance period Reuters shock Quarter alter short-term spread is negative spread is positive Spread percentage points trade and financial transmission mechanism underbidding variance vertical integration zloty