Research on Judgment and Decision Making: Currents, Connections, and Controversies

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William M. Goldstein, Robin M. Hogarth, Lola Lopes
Cambridge University Press, Jun 13, 1997 - Psychology - 750 pages
This book offers an overview of recent research on the psychology of judgment and decision making, the field that investigates the processes by which people draw conclusions, reach evaluations, and make choices. An introductory, historically oriented chapter provides a way of viewing the overall structure of the field, its recent trends, and its possible directions. Subsequent sections present significant recent papers by prominent researchers, organized to reveal the currents, connections, and controversies that animate the field. Current trends in the field are illustrated with papers from ongoing streams of research. The papers on "connections" explore memory, explanation and argument, affect, attitudes, and motivation. Finally, a section on "controversies" presents problem representation, domain knowledge, content specificity, rule-governed versus rule-described behavior, and proposals for radical departures and new beginnings in the field. Students and researchers in psychology who have an interest in cognitive processes will find this text to be rewarding reading.
 

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Contents

Judgment and decision research Some historical context
3
Currents
67
Anomalies of judgment and choice
69
Probabilistic mental models A Brunswikian theory of confidence
95
Decision processes and their adaptiveness
144
The adaptive decision maker Effort and accuracy in choice
181
Acquisition and use of knowledge
205
Learning from feedback Exactingness and incentives
244
Connections
429
Memory
431
Explanations and arguments
454
Decision making under ignorance Arguing with yourself
482
Affect attitudes and motivation
509
Controversies
535
Paramorphic models versus process models
537
Problem representation domain knowledge and content specificity
552

Causation mental simulation and counterfactual reasoning
285
Propensities and counterfactuals The loser that almost won
322
Training and expertise
342
Temporal context
365
Group situations
379
Subjective experience metacognition and insight
393
Endowment and contrast in judgments of wellbeing
411
Content and discontent Indications and implications of domain specificity in preferential decision making
566
Rulegoverned versus ruledescribed behavior
618
Radical departures and new beginnings
657
Between hope and fear The psychology of risk
681
Author index
721
Subject index
737
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