Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects

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Project Management Institute, 2001 - Business & Economics - 259 pages
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.

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About the author (2001)

Dr. Paul Newendorp began his career in 1959 as a petroleum engineer. He later earned MS and PhD in Petroleum Engineering from U. of Oklahoma. In 1968, he developed a two-week short course on petroleum exploration economics and risk analysis. The course was based, in part, on his doctoral research on decision theory and earlier industry work experience. During his 21 years of teaching, Paul was active in developing and promoting use of decision theory methods applied to exploration investments. He pioneered many ideas, particularly with Monte Carlo simulation, that are now standard practice. Paul served in various SPE leadership roles and received numerous awards.

John Schuyler has over 39 years of business experience in training, consulting, analysis, and management. His industry experience has been mostly in the petroleum industry, and also includes finance, mining, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and government.

John's short courses deal with portfolio management, capital investments, project design, and under decisions under uncertainty. He has presented over 300 industry courses for over 24 years, mostly in association with PetroSkills, LLC.

His previous work experience includes VP and petroleum evaluation engineer for Security Pacific Bank; Manager-Business Systems for Cities Service Co.'s Petrochemicals Division; Senior Management Consultant with a national accounting firm; Planning and Evaluation Analyst for Cities Service Oil Company; and VP - Administration, CFO, and co-founder of a small commercial products company.

He holds an M.B.A. from U. of Colorado and B.S. and M.S. degrees in Mineral-Engineering Physics from Colorado School of Mines. He has earned the following: CAM, CCP, CMA, CMC, CPIM, DRMP, PMP, and PE (Colorado). He is a member of AACE, IMA, IMC, INFORMS, PMI, RMAG, SPE and SPEE.

John written over 40 conference papers, articles and handbook chapters published in the professional literature. In addition to revising this book, he has written Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Second Edition (2001, Project Management Institute).

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