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The world of inner uncertainty The nature
PREDICTING THE UNKNOWN
SAMPLING THE UNIVERSE
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actually adults answers appear average bability beads drawn beakers containing believe binary event binomial distribution blue and yellow blue or yellow categories of beaker cent chance child choice context distribution Domitian effect equal numbers estimates experiment experimental favour the non-preponderant football pool four beads four blue beads four yellow fourth bead frequency gambler gambling guilty Homo Ludens idea of independence interpretations level of confidence lights mathematical probability maximum risk-taking level means mind non-preponderant colour non-preponderant outcome number of beakers numbers of blue pairs percentage of blue performance person predictions previous outcomes proportions of blue question random replies risk sample sets of four side situations Somerset Maugham subjective probability success Table tails task tend tendency thinks are correct three blue three yellow tion toss total number Type uncertainty Uncle University of Manchester values given vary vehicle words yellow beads Yellow Blue