## Risk Assessment Methods: Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental RisksMuch has already been written about risk assessment. Epidemiologists write books on how risk assessment is used to explore the factors that influence the distribution of disease in populations of people. Toxicologists write books on how risk assess ment involves exposing animals to risk agents and concluding from the results what risks people might experience if similarly exposed. Engineers write books on how risk assessment is utilized to estimate the risks of constructing a new facility such as a nuclear power plant. Statisticians write books on how risk assessment may be used to analyze mortality or accident data to determine risks. There are already many books on risk assessment-the trouble is that they all seem to be about different sUbjects! This book takes another approach. It brings together all the methods for assessing risk into a common framework, thus demonstrating how the various methods relate to one another. This produces four important benefits: • First, it provides a comprehensive reference for risk assessment. This one source offers readers concise explanations of the many methods currently available for describing and quantifying diverse types of risks. • Second, it consistently evaluates and compares available risk assessment methods and identifies their specific strengths and limitations. Understand ing the limitations of risk assessment methods is important. The field is still in its infancy, and the problems with available methods are disappoint ingly numerous. At the same time, risk assessment is being used. |

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### Contents

INTRODUCTION TO RISK ASSESSMENT 11 INTRODUCTION | 1 |

121 WhatlsRisk? | 2 |

722 What Is Risk Assessment? | 3 |

13 A MODEL OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 5 |

14 THREE BRIEF EXAMPLES OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 7 |

Nuclear Power Plant Risk Assessment | 8 |

Poultry Products Risk Assessment | 10 |

Risk Assessment of an Air Bag PassiveRestraint Standard | 13 |

431 Strengths | 136 |

432 Limitations | 137 |

441 Strengths | 140 |

45 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING HEALTH CONSEQUENCES | 144 |

451 Strengths | 146 |

452 Limitations | 147 |

46 CONTROLLED HUMAN EXPOSURE STUDIES | 149 |

462 Limitations | 150 |

RISKS OF EXPOSURES TO AIR POLLUTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE EMISSIONS STANDARDS | 15 |

151 Problems Involved in Setting Air Quality Standards | 16 |

Modeling Exposures to Air Pollutants Exposure assessment is concerned with developing models of exposure processes In this case the exposure mo... | 18 |

1523 Consequence Assessment HealthEffects Models Consequence assessment in this case involves the development of models of the effects of expos... | 21 |

Applying the Risk Model to Quantify and Describe Risk | 26 |

16 OTHER MODELS OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 27 |

17 A Taxonomic Classification of Risk Assessment Methods | 30 |

18 THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS | 33 |

RELEASE ASSESSMENT | 35 |

211 Toxic Metals | 36 |

212 Solvents | 43 |

273 Pesticides | 44 |

214 Genetically Engineered Microorganisms | 45 |

275 Electromagnetic Radiation | 46 |

276 Radioactivity | 47 |

22 MONITORING | 49 |

227 Strengths | 52 |

222 Limitations | 53 |

23 PERFORMANCE TESTING AND ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION | 54 |

231 Strengths | 56 |

232 Limitations | 57 |

241 Statistical Models | 58 |

242 Estimating the Parameters of Statistical Models | 61 |

243 ComponentFailure and InitiatingEvent Models | 62 |

244 Models for Events of Varying Magnitude | 65 |

245 Hypothesis Testing | 67 |

246 Selection and Interpretation of Statistical Models | 68 |

247 Strengths | 71 |

248 Limitations | 72 |

25 MODELING METHODS FOR RELEASE ASSESSMENT | 74 |

251 FailureMode and Effects Analysis FMEA and Related Methods | 75 |

252 FaultTree Analysis EventTree Analysis and Related Methods | 79 |

253 Discharge Models | 83 |

254 Strengths | 87 |

EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT | 91 |

31 MONITORING METHODS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT | 93 |

311 Strengths | 97 |

312 Iimitations | 98 |

32 TESTING METHODS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT | 100 |

321 Strengths | 101 |

33 MODELS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT | 102 |

331 Atmospheric Models | 103 |

332 SurfaceWater Models | 107 |

333 Groundwater Models | 110 |

334 Watershed Runoff Models | 112 |

335 FoodChain Models | 114 |

336 Multimedia Models | 115 |

337 ExposureRoute Models | 116 |

338 Population Models | 121 |

339 Strengths | 123 |

CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT | 127 |

411 Cancer | 129 |

412 Reproductive and Developmental Effects | 130 |

413 Clinical Effects | 131 |

42 MONITORING METHODS FOR ASSESSING HEALTH CONSEQUENCES | 132 |

421 Strengths | 133 |

422 Limitations | 134 |

471 DoseResponse Models | 151 |

4711 Simple DoseResponse Models The simplest doseresponse models are merely curves relating some single measure of dose eg cumulative exposu... | 154 |

4712 Tolerance Distribution Models Tolerance or threshold distribution models are based on the assumption that each person in the population has a... | 155 |

4713 Mechanistic Models Depending on the level of scientific knowledge more sophisticated doseresponse models may be developed based on theor... | 160 |

4714 TimetoResponse Models Timetoresponse models are used for assessing the risks of carcinogens and other agents for which a significant time de... | 164 |

4715 Differences among DoseResponse Models Table 20 shows the mathematical expressions for some of the more common doseresponse models A... | 165 |

472 Pharmacokinetic Models | 168 |

473 Strengths | 172 |

48 EFFECTS OF RISK AGENTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT | 179 |

49 MONITORING METHODS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES | 182 |

491 Strengths | 184 |

492 Limitations | 185 |

4101 Strengths | 190 |

411 MODELING METHODS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES | 192 |

4I11 Simple Environmental DoseResponse Models | 193 |

4112 Dynamic Models | 194 |

4113 Matrix Models | 195 |

4114 Stochastic Models | 196 |

4116 Models of the Impact of Harvesting on Biological Populations | 197 |

4117 PollutionResponse Models | 198 |

4119 Limitations | 199 |

RISK ESTIMATION | 203 |

51 THE COMPOSITE RISK MODEL | 205 |

52 METHODS FOR ESTIMATING AND ANALYZING UNCERTAINTY | 207 |

527 Classical versus Bayesian Methods for Quantifying Uncertainties | 208 |

522 Methods Based on a Classical Perspective | 212 |

523 Methods Based on the Bayesian Perspective | 213 |

probability methods which require the subject to respond by specifying points on a probability scale that correspond to fixed values of the uncertain ... | 214 |

behavioral aggregation which involves contact and interaction among the panel members and mechanical aggregation in which the analyst uses a mat... | 216 |

524 Methods for Propagating through Risk Models | 217 |

5242 Monte Carlo Methods Monte Carlo simulation provides an efficient approach for integrating and propagating probability distributions through ... | 218 |

5243 ResponseSurface and Related Methods Since the estimation of outcome distributions often requires a large number of simulations Monte Carlo ... | 219 |

5244 Probability Trees If the Bayesian perspective is taken probability trees rather than simulation methods are often used for analysis because they p... | 220 |

525 Model Uncertainty | 224 |

53 OUTPUTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 225 |

532 Risk Indices | 230 |

533 Analyzing the Sources of Uncertainty | 234 |

534 Qualitative Uncertainty Analysis | 235 |

AN EVALUATION OF THE STATE OF THE ART | 239 |

61 THE LOGICAL SOUNDNESS OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 241 |

62 THE COMPLETENESS OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 242 |

63 THE ACCURACY OF RISK ASSESSMFJSIT | 243 |

64 THE ACCEPTABILITY OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 246 |

642 Limitations Related to Risk Assessment Experts and Others Who Provide Risk Information | 247 |

643 Limitations Related to Potential Users of Risk Assessment Information | 251 |

65 THE PRACTICALITY OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 252 |

66 THE EFFECTIVENESS OF RISK ASSESSMENT | 253 |

67 SOME RECOMMENDATIONS | 257 |

672 Accounting for Uncertainties | 258 |

673 Dealing with Value Judgments | 260 |

674 Conservatism | 262 |

68 CONCLUDING REMARKS | 263 |

267 | |

GLOSSARY | 289 |

311 | |

### Other editions - View all

Risk Assessment Methods: Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks V.T. Covello,M.W. Merkhoher No preview available - 2013 |

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accident adverse effects adverse health effects air pollutants analysis animal tests animals assumed assumptions atmospheric Bayesian biological cancer carcinogen cause CCDF cells characteristics chemical complex components computed concentrations confidence interval consequence assessment conservatism contaminated curve damage describe developed disease dose dose-response models dose-response relationship ecosystem emissions environment environmental consequences equations example exposed exposure assessment extrapolation factors failure rate frequency function genetic genetically engineered microorganisms groundwater hazardous health consequences human identify impact individual input laboratory levels limited linear magnitude measures microorganisms monitoring multistage model NAS–NRC obtained occur organisms outcomes output parameters pesticides population potential probability distribution produce quantifying radiation radioactive release assessment represent response risk agents risk assessment risk assessment methods risk estimates risk model risk source sampling sensitive soil species statistical methods statistical model sulfur dioxide tests toxic substances tumors types typically uncertainty values variables various

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