Risk Assessment Methods: Approaches for Assessing Health and Environmental Risks

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Springer Science & Business Media, Dec 31, 1993 - Medical - 319 pages
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Much has already been written about risk assessment. Epidemiologists write books on how risk assessment is used to explore the factors that influence the distribution of disease in populations of people. Toxicologists write books on how risk assess ment involves exposing animals to risk agents and concluding from the results what risks people might experience if similarly exposed. Engineers write books on how risk assessment is utilized to estimate the risks of constructing a new facility such as a nuclear power plant. Statisticians write books on how risk assessment may be used to analyze mortality or accident data to determine risks. There are already many books on risk assessment-the trouble is that they all seem to be about different sUbjects! This book takes another approach. It brings together all the methods for assessing risk into a common framework, thus demonstrating how the various methods relate to one another. This produces four important benefits: • First, it provides a comprehensive reference for risk assessment. This one source offers readers concise explanations of the many methods currently available for describing and quantifying diverse types of risks. • Second, it consistently evaluates and compares available risk assessment methods and identifies their specific strengths and limitations. Understand ing the limitations of risk assessment methods is important. The field is still in its infancy, and the problems with available methods are disappoint ingly numerous. At the same time, risk assessment is being used.
 

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Contents

INTRODUCTION TO RISK ASSESSMENT 11 INTRODUCTION
1
121 WhatlsRisk?
2
722 What Is Risk Assessment?
3
13 A MODEL OF RISK ASSESSMENT
5
14 THREE BRIEF EXAMPLES OF RISK ASSESSMENT
7
Nuclear Power Plant Risk Assessment
8
Poultry Products Risk Assessment
10
Risk Assessment of an Air Bag PassiveRestraint Standard
13
431 Strengths
136
432 Limitations
137
441 Strengths
140
45 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
144
451 Strengths
146
452 Limitations
147
46 CONTROLLED HUMAN EXPOSURE STUDIES
149
462 Limitations
150

RISKS OF EXPOSURES TO AIR POLLUTION UNDER ALTERNATIVE EMISSIONS STANDARDS
15
151 Problems Involved in Setting Air Quality Standards
16
Modeling Exposures to Air Pollutants Exposure assessment is concerned with developing models of exposure processes In this case the exposure mo...
18
1523 Consequence Assessment HealthEffects Models Consequence assessment in this case involves the development of models of the effects of expos...
21
Applying the Risk Model to Quantify and Describe Risk
26
16 OTHER MODELS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
27
17 A Taxonomic Classification of Risk Assessment Methods
30
18 THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
33
RELEASE ASSESSMENT
35
211 Toxic Metals
36
212 Solvents
43
273 Pesticides
44
214 Genetically Engineered Microorganisms
45
275 Electromagnetic Radiation
46
276 Radioactivity
47
22 MONITORING
49
227 Strengths
52
222 Limitations
53
23 PERFORMANCE TESTING AND ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION
54
231 Strengths
56
232 Limitations
57
241 Statistical Models
58
242 Estimating the Parameters of Statistical Models
61
243 ComponentFailure and InitiatingEvent Models
62
244 Models for Events of Varying Magnitude
65
245 Hypothesis Testing
67
246 Selection and Interpretation of Statistical Models
68
247 Strengths
71
248 Limitations
72
25 MODELING METHODS FOR RELEASE ASSESSMENT
74
251 FailureMode and Effects Analysis FMEA and Related Methods
75
252 FaultTree Analysis EventTree Analysis and Related Methods
79
253 Discharge Models
83
254 Strengths
87
EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
91
31 MONITORING METHODS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
93
311 Strengths
97
312 Iimitations
98
32 TESTING METHODS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
100
321 Strengths
101
33 MODELS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT
102
331 Atmospheric Models
103
332 SurfaceWater Models
107
333 Groundwater Models
110
334 Watershed Runoff Models
112
335 FoodChain Models
114
336 Multimedia Models
115
337 ExposureRoute Models
116
338 Population Models
121
339 Strengths
123
CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT
127
411 Cancer
129
412 Reproductive and Developmental Effects
130
413 Clinical Effects
131
42 MONITORING METHODS FOR ASSESSING HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
132
421 Strengths
133
422 Limitations
134
471 DoseResponse Models
151
4711 Simple DoseResponse Models The simplest doseresponse models are merely curves relating some single measure of dose eg cumulative exposu...
154
4712 Tolerance Distribution Models Tolerance or threshold distribution models are based on the assumption that each person in the population has a...
155
4713 Mechanistic Models Depending on the level of scientific knowledge more sophisticated doseresponse models may be developed based on theor...
160
4714 TimetoResponse Models Timetoresponse models are used for assessing the risks of carcinogens and other agents for which a significant time de...
164
4715 Differences among DoseResponse Models Table 20 shows the mathematical expressions for some of the more common doseresponse models A...
165
472 Pharmacokinetic Models
168
473 Strengths
172
48 EFFECTS OF RISK AGENTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT
179
49 MONITORING METHODS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES
182
491 Strengths
184
492 Limitations
185
4101 Strengths
190
411 MODELING METHODS FOR ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES
192
4I11 Simple Environmental DoseResponse Models
193
4112 Dynamic Models
194
4113 Matrix Models
195
4114 Stochastic Models
196
4116 Models of the Impact of Harvesting on Biological Populations
197
4117 PollutionResponse Models
198
4119 Limitations
199
RISK ESTIMATION
203
51 THE COMPOSITE RISK MODEL
205
52 METHODS FOR ESTIMATING AND ANALYZING UNCERTAINTY
207
527 Classical versus Bayesian Methods for Quantifying Uncertainties
208
522 Methods Based on a Classical Perspective
212
523 Methods Based on the Bayesian Perspective
213
probability methods which require the subject to respond by specifying points on a probability scale that correspond to fixed values of the uncertain ...
214
behavioral aggregation which involves contact and interaction among the panel members and mechanical aggregation in which the analyst uses a mat...
216
524 Methods for Propagating through Risk Models
217
5242 Monte Carlo Methods Monte Carlo simulation provides an efficient approach for integrating and propagating probability distributions through ...
218
5243 ResponseSurface and Related Methods Since the estimation of outcome distributions often requires a large number of simulations Monte Carlo ...
219
5244 Probability Trees If the Bayesian perspective is taken probability trees rather than simulation methods are often used for analysis because they p...
220
525 Model Uncertainty
224
53 OUTPUTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
225
532 Risk Indices
230
533 Analyzing the Sources of Uncertainty
234
534 Qualitative Uncertainty Analysis
235
AN EVALUATION OF THE STATE OF THE ART
239
61 THE LOGICAL SOUNDNESS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
241
62 THE COMPLETENESS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
242
63 THE ACCURACY OF RISK ASSESSMFJSIT
243
64 THE ACCEPTABILITY OF RISK ASSESSMENT
246
642 Limitations Related to Risk Assessment Experts and Others Who Provide Risk Information
247
643 Limitations Related to Potential Users of Risk Assessment Information
251
65 THE PRACTICALITY OF RISK ASSESSMENT
252
66 THE EFFECTIVENESS OF RISK ASSESSMENT
253
67 SOME RECOMMENDATIONS
257
672 Accounting for Uncertainties
258
673 Dealing with Value Judgments
260
674 Conservatism
262
68 CONCLUDING REMARKS
263
REFERENCES
267
GLOSSARY
289
INDEX
311
Copyright

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About the author (1993)

Vincent T. Covello has studied the art of suiseki for over twelve years and has lectured extensively on the topic. He is considered by many to be the foremost authority on suiseki in the United States

Yuji Yoshimura is one of the world's leading experts on bonsai, Japanese horticulture and miniature landscapes. He has lectured throughout the world and has published numerous books and articles on bonsai in both Japanese and English.

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