Safeguards Systems Analysis: With Applications to Nuclear Material Safeguards and Other Inspection Problems
Adequate verification is the key issue not only in today's arms control, arms limitation, and disarmament regimes, but also in less spectacular areas like auditing in economics or control of environmental pollution. Statistical methodologies and system analytical approaches are the tools developed over the past decades for quantifying those components of adequate verification which are quantifiable, i. e. , numbers, inventories, mass transfers, etc. , together with their uncertainties. In his book Safeguards Systems Analy sis, Professor Rudolf Avenhaus condenses the experience and expertise he has gained over the past 20 years, when his work was mainly related to the development of the IAEA's system for safeguarding nuclear materials, to system analytical studies at IIASA in the field of future energy requirements and their risks, and to the application of statistical techniques to arms control. The result is a unified and up-to-date presentation and analysis of the quantitative aspects of safeguards systems, and the application of the more important findings to practical problems. International Nuclear Material Safeguards, by far the most advanced verification system in the field of arms limitation, is used as the main field of application for the game theoretical analysis, material accountancy theory, and the theory on verification of material accounting data developed in the first four chapters.
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Game Theoretical Analysis
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Safeguards Systems Analysis: With Applications to Nuclear Material ...
Limited preview - 2013
alternative hypothesis arms control assumption auditing auxiliary game Avenhaus average run length balance test statistics batch boundary condition Bundeswehr cadmium chapter covariance matrix critical region CUSUM test D-statistic data verification decision problem defined Definition determined distribution function diversion strategies divert material equation equilibrium point expected value false alarm probability formulas Furthermore game theoretical given guaranteed probability IAEA independent inspection effort inspector inventory periods Ispra ith class Let us consider material accountancy material balance area material balance test MUF2 MUFR Neyman Neyman-Pearson test nuclear fuel cycle nuclear material Nuclear Material Management nuclear material safeguards null hypothesis H0 operator optimal overall false alarm overall probability payoff parameters Pearson test plant player possible probability of detection pure strategies random variables random vector safeguards authority safeguards system sample sizes sequential significance threshold single false alarm solution Symposium on Safeguards test procedure Theorem total falsification two-person zero-sum game var(MUF variance