Scenario Development

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GRIN Verlag, Jan 10, 2004 - Business & Economics - 21 pages
Seminar paper from the year 2003 in the subject Business economics - Marketing, Corporate Communication, CRM, Market Research, Social Media, grade: Good, Kiel University of Applied Sciences (Economics), course: Strategic Marketing, 10 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: There are many different methodologies for assessing the future environment of an enterprise. But it is quite difficult to anticipate the future development successfully. Three examples illustrate this problem: • “In 1943 Thomas Watson, who was then chairman of IBM, forecast a world market for about five computers. • In 1970, Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said no one needed to have a personal computer at home. (Of interest is that Ken ́s company was purchased by Compaq - one of the leaders in home computers). • In 1981, Microsoft ́s founder Bill Gates said that 640K would be enough memory for anyone. (Microsoft was also slow to take advantage of the early Internet - releasing Internet Explorer in August 1995, well after Netscape Navigator, which had taken a dominant lead in the early browser market.)” These examples show that it can have disadvantageous consequences to rely on one apparently safe forecast. Scenario planning is a technique that allows to operate in planning with more than one possible future. This treatise describes the very interesting methodology of scenario development and demonstrates how to use it in an eight step procedure. Concluding, it shows how the oil company Shell had a remarkable success in the 1970s by using scenario planning and gives an assessment of this remarkable technique.

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alternative Analysis of consequences Analytical Techniques APPENDIX assessing the future Business business-unit management teams causal processes Complexity Management Instrument CONCEPT OF SCENARIO Consistency Analysis conventional corporate crude oil decisions descriptors different future driving forces Dyson Eight Step Procedure energy crisis environment EVOLUTION OF SCENARIO forecast fundamental uncertainties future situations Georgantzas 1995 Geschka global scenarios horizon http://www.hicss.hawaii.edu/HICSS36/HICSSpapers/CLGTM01.pdf http://www.ienica.net/fibresseminar/reibnitz.pdf http://www.mce.be/news/tacklingfuture.htm http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId=royal http://www.shell.com/home/royal-en/downloads/coda_scenarioplanning.pdf identified influential factors Inspirational presentation Integrated Complexity Management internal publications Linnemann and Kennell main strategy Master Guideline Methodology Models and Analytical narrative NUMBER OF SCENARIOS oil company OPEC outcomes planners possible future Prev Projections Reibnitz representation scenario analysis Scenario Building Scenario Development SCENARIO MODEL SCENARIO PLANNING SUCCESS scenario technique Schnaars Shell International Limited SHELL´S SCENARIO step three Strategic Marketing Strategic Planning Strategische SUCCESS AT SHELL Sussex UK Wiley System Szenario-Technik Task Analysis term scenario trend Unternehmensplanung warning signs West Sussex UK workshops with business-unit www.ogilvy.com/viewpoint/pdf/v2_barnett.pdf

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