Scenario-driven Planning: Learning to Manage Strategic Uncertainty
Scenario-driven planning is a new management technology for strategy design that employs computed or "strategic" scenarios to improve the quality of managerial thinking. Strategic scenarios--the outcomes of modeling strategic situations--produce insight much richer than that expected from environmental scenarios alone. They bring to the consulting and upper-level management audiences a better way of handling strategic uncertainty, providing the tools managers and strategy students need for thinking and dialoguing about complex strategic issues.
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PRODUCTIVITY AND STRATEGY
ENVIRONMENTAL TRIGGERS AND SCENARIOS
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Acar Ackoff actual service adjacency matrix analysis assumptions BASICS capacity and capability causal diagramming causal map changes in strategy Chapter cognitive Combank's competitive comprehensive situation mapping computed scenarios corporate cross-impact cross-impact analysis Datacom's sales decision makers demand for service descriptor economic environment environmental scenarios example external funding feedback firm's strategic situation firms forecasting foreign funds Forrester GCB's Georgantzas global Goodyear Aerospace industry influence diagram Infoplus initial input interactive internal learning loop macroenvironmental scenarios management technology managerial Mason & Mitroff matrix mental models method MICMAC mixed scenario Morecroft nario organization organizational organizational learning overtime partial model tests percent increase posterior probabilities potential problem framing productivity pure scenario rationality reference scenario relationships revenue sales force sales objective sales performance scenario-driven planning scenarios computed shows simulation models stochastic strategic management strategic variables strategy design structure system dynamics tion trends uncertainty