Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Management of Risk in Business and Engineering

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Springer Science & Business Media, Dec 10, 2008 - Business & Economics - 450 pages

This book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test, and operation stages of economic, banking, and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). This edition includes new chapters providing a detailed treatment of scenario logic and probabilistic models for revealing bribes. It also contains clear definitions and notations, revised sections and chapters, an extended list of references, and a new subject index, as well as more than a hundred illustrations and tables which motivate the presentation.

 

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Contents

Management and Risk
1
The Human Being and Risks
27
Principles of Risk Management in Design
35
Risk Management at Debugging Tests
58
Risk Management in Operation on Basis of Monitoring
83
Risk Management of Dangerous Plant
93
Transparency of Methods for Estimation of Risk
115
Bases of Logic and Probabilistic Calculus
134
LPModel of Credit Risk for Natural Persons
279
LPModel of Credit Risk for Juridical Persons
300
Scenario Logic and Probabilistic Risk Models of Bribes
321
LPModel of Security Portfolio Risk
339
Risk LPModels of Quality and Efficiency
370
LPModels of Company Management Nonsuccess Risk
383
LPModels of Fraud and Interaction of Companies
396
The Formal LPTheory of Nonsuccess Risk with GIE
407

LPModeling and Analysis of Risk in Engineering
149
Automated Structural and Logical Modeling
169
Logical and Probabilistic Theory of Risk with Groups of Incompatible Events
188
Identification of Risk LPModels with Groupsof Incompatible Events
215
LPAnalysis of Risk in Systems with Groups of Incompatible Events
245
Software for Assessment Analysis and Management of Risk
255
Training Course Modeling Estimation and Analysis of Risks in Economics
418
Conclusion
429
References
435
Subject Index
445
Copyright

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