Scenarios in Business

Front Cover
Wiley, May 30, 2002 - Business & Economics - 288 pages
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight.

There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios planning in business.

Scenario Planning in Business and its companion, Scenarios in Public Policy are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.

Reviews of Gill Ringland's prevoius work:

"Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice."
Arie de Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of 'The Living Company'

"(Gill Ringland) offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to information technology and other forms of complexity, offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change."
Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum

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Contents

Introduction
1
EVOLUTION IN THE USE OF SCENARIOS
7
SCENARIO THINKING
69
Copyright

3 other sections not shown

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About the author (2002)

After research at the University of California, Berkeley and as a Fellow at Somerville College, Oxford, Gill Ringland had a career in the IT industry. After roles in software houses, process control and semiconductor companies, she joined ICL. There she was responsible for building a 3bn new business over five years. As Head of Strategy she used scenarios to understand the complexities of the Information & Communications industry and map ICL's future.
Gill is a past Member of SRC's Computing Science Committee and of the Council of the Economic and Social Research Council. She is a Court Assistant of the Information Technologists Livery Company, an ICL Fellow Emeritus, a Fellow of the British Computer Society and Graduate of Stanford's Senior Executive Program.
Since 2002 Gill has written and consulted widely as Fellow and Chief Executive of St Andrews Management Institute (SAMI). She is the author of three books - "Scenario Planning," "Scenarios in Business" and "Scenarios in Public Policy" - all published by Wiley. "Scenarios in Marketing," co-authored with Laurie Young, is currently in preparation.

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