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Introduction and Overview
A Model of the UnemploymentInflation Process
The Policy Rules and Stochastic Simulation Framework
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aggregate demand anchor for inflation assumption backward-looking measure bounded random walk Calibrations of IFB1 central bank CGG rule conventional Taylor rule Convex F Normal convex Phillips curves core inflation counterfactual history degree of NAIRU deviations of inflation EFB2 errors in estimating Explosiveness and Indeterminacy first-difference rule fully credible Gertler IFB1 rules IFB2 inflation and unemployment inflation expectations inflation forecast inflation target interest rate smoothing IS-LM models Kalman filter lagged Laxton linear models linear Phillips curves long-run DNAIRU loss function LWW rules macro models mixed strategies model variants moderately nonlinear model monetary authorities monetary policy rules myopic NAIRU uncertainty nominal interest rate Normal Normal Normal optimal calibrations optimal forecasts output gap percent percentage point period Policy Reaction Function policymakers rate of inflation real interest rate Rudebusch and Svensson shocks short-run simple policy rules simple rules specification stabilizing properties standard deviations stochastic simulation Table unemployment gap unemployment rate Wieland