Simulation: a modeler's approach

Front Cover
A unique, integrated treatment of computer modeling and simulation "The future of science belongs to those willing to make the shift to simulation-based modeling," predicts Rice Professor James Thompson, a leading modeler and computational statistician widely known for his original ideas and engaging style. He discusses methods, available to anyone with a fast desktop computer, for integrating simulation into the modeling process in order to create meaningful models of real phenomena. Drawing from a wealth of experience, he gives examples from trading markets, oncology, epidemiology, statistical process control, physics, public policy, combat, real-world optimization, Bayesian analyses, and population dynamics. Dr. Thompson believes that, so far from liberating us from the necessity of modeling, the fast computer enables us to engage in realistic models of processes in , for example, economics, which have not been possible earlier because simple stochastic models in the forward temporal direction generally become quite unmanageably complex when one is looking for such things as likelihoods. Thompson shows how simulation may be used to bypass the necessity of obtaining likelihood functions or moment-generating functions as a precursor to parameter estimation. Simulation: A Modeler's Approach is a provocative and practical guide for professionals in applied statistics as well as engineers, scientists, computer scientists, financial analysts, and anyone with an interest in the synergy between data, models, and the digital computer.

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Contents

The Generation of Random Numbers
1
Random Quadrature
23
Monte Carlo Solutions of Differential Equations
55
Copyright

10 other sections not shown

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About the author (2000)

JAMES R. THOMPSON, PhD, is Professor of Statistics at Rice University. A Fellow of the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, he is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute. In 1985, he received the ASAs Don Owen Award, and in 1991, he was awarded the U.S. Armys Samuel S. Wilks Medal for his work in applied statistics. A frequent consultant to industry, he holds adjunct professorships at the M. D. Anderson Cancer Center and the University of Texas School of Public Health. He is the author of ten books, including Empirical Model Building, available from Wiley.