Statistical Surveillance: Optimal Decision Times in Economics

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Almqvist & Wiksell International, 2004 - Business & Economics - 140 pages
This is a Ph.D. dissertation. Statistical surveillance is used to repeatedly evaluate the amount of information contained in observations which are achieved continuously. This makes it possible to quickly and safely detect changes in the way economic and financial time series evolve through time. Thus, the optimal time for decisions can be determined. The thesis treats systems for early warnings of turns in economic processes. In papers I & II it is demonstrated how such systems can be used to predict the turning points of the general business cycle, by detecting turns in leading indicators. In papers III & IV some strategies for timely transactions in the financial market are analyzed by means of the theory of statistical surveillance.

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About the author (2004)

David Brock was born in 1962 in Washington, D. C. The University of California, Berkeley is his alma mater. He is a widely published author, journalist, and Democratic activist. In 2004, Brock founded Media Matters, the nation's premier media watchdog. Following the 2010 elections, Brock founded the Democratic SuperPAC American Bridge, which is one of the largest modern campaign war rooms ever assembled using research, tracking, and rapid response to defeat Republicans. He is the author of five books, including his 2002 best-selling memoir, Blinded by the Right: The Conscience of an Ex-Conservative. Killing the Messenger, published in (2015, is his current bestseller. His writing appears in USA Today,, the Huffington Post, the Daily Beast and Salon. He lives in Washington, D. C.