Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

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CQ Press, Mar 16, 2010 - Political Science - 343 pages
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Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise into formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail and utility from existing handbooks.

Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.

THE TECHNIQUES

* Getting Started Checklist

* Customer Checklist

* Issue Redefinition

* Chronologies and Timelines

* Sorting

* Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

* Matrices

* Network Analysis

* Mind Maps and Concept Maps

* Process Maps and Gantt Charts

* Structured Brainstorming

* Virtual Brainstorming

* Nominal Group Technique

* Starbursting

* Cross-Impact Matrix

* Morphological Analysis

* Quadrant Crunching

* Basic Scenario Analysis

* Alternative Futures Analysis

* Multiple Scenario Generation

* Indicators

* Indicators Validator

* Simple Hypothesis

* Multiple Hypotheses Generator

* Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

* Diagnostic Reasoning

* Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

* Argument Mapping

* Deception Detection

* Key Assumptions Check

* Structured Analogies

* Role Playing

* Red Hat Analysis

* Outside-In Thinking

* Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

* Prediction Markets

* Premortem Analysis

* Structured Self-Critique

* What If? Analysis

* High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

* Devil's Advocacy

* Red Team Analysis

* Delphi Method

* Adversarial Collaboration

* Structured Debate

* Complexity Manager

* Decision Matrix

* Force Field Analysis

* Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

* SWOT Analysis

 

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Contents

Foreword by John McLaughlin
Building a Taxonomy
Criteria for Selecting Structured Techniques
Assessment of Cause and Effect
Decomposition and Visualization
Idea Generation
7d Selecting Scenarios
Scenarios and Indicators
Hypothesis Generation and Testing
Entering and Coding Evidence
Challenge Analysis
Conflict Management
Practitioners Guide to Collaboration
1a Traditional Analytic Team
Evaluation of Structured Analytic Techniques
Vision of the Future

2a Descriptive Indicators of a Clandestine Drug Laboratory
3a Indicators Validator Model

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About the author (2010)

Randolph H. Pherson has spearheaded teaching and developing analytic techniques and critical thinking skills in the Intelligence Community. He is the author of the Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques and has coauthored Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis with Richards J. Heuer Jr., Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, and the Analytic Writing Guide with Louis M. Kaiser. Throughout his twenty-eight-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency, where he last served as national intelligence officer for Latin America, he was an avid supporter of ways to instill more rigor in the analytic process. As president of Pherson Associates, LLC since 2003 and chief executive officer of Globalytica, LLC since 2009, he has been a vigorous proponent of a case-based approach to analytic instruction. Together, Beebe and Pherson have developed and tested new analytic tools and techniques, created interactive analytic tradecraft courses, and facilitated analytic projects. In their work as analytic coaches, facilitators, and instructors,nbsp;they have found the case approach to be an invaluable teaching tool. This second edition of case studies is their most recent collaboration and one that they hope will help analysts of all types improve both the quality and impact of their work.

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