Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

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CQ Press, Mar 16, 2010 - Political Science - 343 pages
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Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise into formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail and utility from existing handbooks.

Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.

THE TECHNIQUES

* Getting Started Checklist

* Customer Checklist

* Issue Redefinition

* Chronologies and Timelines

* Sorting

* Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing

* Matrices

* Network Analysis

* Mind Maps and Concept Maps

* Process Maps and Gantt Charts

* Structured Brainstorming

* Virtual Brainstorming

* Nominal Group Technique

* Starbursting

* Cross-Impact Matrix

* Morphological Analysis

* Quadrant Crunching

* Basic Scenario Analysis

* Alternative Futures Analysis

* Multiple Scenario Generation

* Indicators

* Indicators Validator

* Simple Hypothesis

* Multiple Hypotheses Generator

* Quadrant Hypothesis Generation

* Diagnostic Reasoning

* Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

* Argument Mapping

* Deception Detection

* Key Assumptions Check

* Structured Analogies

* Role Playing

* Red Hat Analysis

* Outside-In Thinking

* Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model

* Prediction Markets

* Premortem Analysis

* Structured Self-Critique

* What If? Analysis

* High Impact/Low Probability Analysis

* Devil's Advocacy

* Red Team Analysis

* Delphi Method

* Adversarial Collaboration

* Structured Debate

* Complexity Manager

* Decision Matrix

* Force Field Analysis

* Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

* SWOT Analysis

 

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Contents

Foreword by John McLaughlin
Building a Taxonomy
Criteria for Selecting Structured Techniques
Assessment of Cause and Effect
Decomposition and Visualization
Idea Generation
7d Selecting Scenarios
Scenarios and Indicators
Hypothesis Generation and Testing
Entering and Coding Evidence
Challenge Analysis
Conflict Management
Practitioners Guide to Collaboration
1a Traditional Analytic Team
Evaluation of Structured Analytic Techniques
Vision of the Future

2a Descriptive Indicators of a Clandestine Drug Laboratory
3a Indicators Validator Model

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About the author (2010)

Randolph H. Pherson , Chief Executive Officer ofnbsp;Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governmentsnbsp;develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations.nbsp;He has authored seven books on structurednbsp;analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresightnbsp;analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated withnbsp;Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypothesesnbsp;(ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques fornbsp;Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at thenbsp;London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertienbsp;School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and thenbsp;Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for anbsp;suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite®.nbsp; Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a foundingnbsp;Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completednbsp;a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recentlynbsp;serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously atnbsp;the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topicsnbsp;ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspectornbsp;General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning processnbsp;for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medalnbsp;for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Careernbsp;Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College andnbsp;his MA in International Relations from Yale University.

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