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INTRODUCTION AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
FAILURES OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING
EPISTEMOLOGY OF FORECASTING
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achieve activities aircraft alternative analysis application approach assumed basic capability Chap configurations constraints Corporation cost course curve decision Defense Delphi method economic electric electronic energy engines Erich Jantsch Evaluation example existing exponential extrapolation factors field figure figure of merit function future Gerald Holton goals growth Herman Kahn Homopolar Hudson Institute important increase industry innovation instance invention involved J. B. S. Haldane Jantsch jet engines large number laser Lenz limited logical logistic curve long-range macrovariable major measure method military mission morphological morphological analysis National Nevil Shute nology nuclear objectives Olaf Helmer operating parameters percent physics planning predicted probably problem projects question relevance tree requirements research and development result S. C. Gilfillan scenario scientific scientists social space strategic tech techniques technological change technological forecasting tion trend United utility variables York