Technology and Jobs: Secular Changes and Cyclical Dynamics, Issue 5656
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1996 - Factories - 51 pages
In this paper, we exploit plant-level data for U.S. manufacturing for the 1970s and 1980s to explore the connections between changes in technology and the structure of employment and wages. We focus on the nonproduction labor share (measured alternatively by employment and wages) as the variable of interest. Our main findings are summarized as follows: (i) aggregate changes in the nonproduction of labor share at annual and longer frequencies are dominated by within plant changes; (ii) the distribution of annual within plant changes exhibits a spike at zero, tremendous heterogeneity and fat left and right tails; (iii) within plant secular changes are concentrated in recessions; and (iv) while observable indicators of changes in technology account for a significant fraction of the secular increase in the average nonproduction labor share, unobservable factors account for most of the secular increase, most of the cyclical variation and most of the cross sectional heterogeneity
What people are saying - Write a review
We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.
aggregate change analysis balanced panel biased technical change Bound and Griliches capital-skill complementarity change in nonproduction coefficients continuing plants contribution countercyclicality covariance creation and destruction Davis and Haltiwanger decomposition decrease difference specification downturns Dummy early 1980s recession Employment Share Based employment-weighted entering plants entry and exit estimate exiting plants factors of production information technologies instrumental variables investment IV-GMM job creation job destruction labor share changes long difference long run changes long run secular lumpy Macroeconomics models NBER nonhomotheticity nonproduction labor share nonproduction workers output panel of continuing percent period persistence rates persistent component plant changes plant component plant job reallocation plant-level changes production and nonproduction production technologies production workers quadrant rates of job relative wages retooling run secular increase skill intensive skill mix changes structure technology adoption total employment two-digit industry types of workers U.S. Census Bureau U.S. manufacturing variables wage shares Washington D.C. worker type