The American Campaign, Second Edition: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote

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Texas A&M University Press, Jan 14, 2008 - Political Science - 312 pages
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Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell’s “theory of the predictable campaign,” incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions.

Campbell’s cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists’ ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns.

This excellent election-year text provides:

a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes;

a historical summary of many of America’s important presidential elections;

a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.
 

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Contents

The Impact of Presidential Campaigns
3
The Theory of the Predictable Campaign
26
Studying the Effects of Campaigns
49
The Stable Context of the Campaign
79
Presidential Incumbency
102
The Economic Context of the Campaign
128
The Normal Course of the Campaign
143
Electoral Competition and Unsystematic Campaign Effects
165
How Campaigns Matter
189
The 2008 Campaign
205
Partisanship in the American Electorate
213
Time of the Vote Decision and Partisan Loyalty
227
Notes
233
References
279
Index
293
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About the author (2008)

JAMES E. CAMPBELL is a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, SUNY. His numerous articles on voting and elections have been published in journals such as American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, and Journal of Politics.

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