The American Campaign, Second Edition: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote
Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell’s “theory of the predictable campaign,” incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions.
Campbell’s cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists’ ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns.
This excellent election-year text provides:
a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes;
a historical summary of many of America’s important presidential elections;
a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.
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The Impact of Presidential Campaigns
The Theory of the Predictable Campaign
Studying the Effects of Campaigns
The Stable Context of the Campaign
The Economic Context of the Campaign
The Normal Course of the Campaign
Electoral Competition and Unsystematic Campaign Effects
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actual vote advantage Al Gore analysis approval ratings Bill Clinton campaign effects Campbell candidate's Carter Clinton competitive context convention bumps debate difference early deciders effects of campaigns elec election campaign election day election forecasting election results election-year economy electoral votes error evaluations favored forecasting model frontrunner's frontrunners Gallup Poll George H. W. Bush George W growth rate Holbrook Hubert Humphrey impact in-party candidate in-party's incumbent presidents indicates issues Jimmy Carter John Kerry landslide late deciders late-deciding voters loyalty rates major-party narrowing effect Nixon nomic paign partisan partisanship party identification party's candidate party's nomination percent percentage points poll lead pre-campaign predictable campaign preference poll presidential campaigns presidential elections presidential incumbency presidential vote Reagan realignment reelection regression Republican Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan Ross Perot Senator survey systematic tion trailing candidates trial-heat polls two-party vote variable vote choice vote decisions vote intentions vote percentages winning