The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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Penguin Books Limited, Apr 3, 2008 - Business & Economics - 366 pages
7 Reviews
The Black Swanis a concept that will change the way you look at the world. Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics- it's unpredictable; carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals that we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

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Great extension of Fooled By Randomness

User Review  - Banker Bob - Borders

I read Fooled by Randomness first then I read this one. You don't, however, need to read Fooled by Randomness to enjoy The Black Swan. Not only is Taleb a great writer, he is a better "explainer ... Read full review

Couldn't finish it

User Review  - Pomona88 - Borders

I was intrigued by the premise and thought the opening chapter or two were solid. But after a while, it devolved into useless anecdotes and seemed to repeat his earlier book. Read full review

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About the author (2008)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an uncompromizing no-nonsense thinker for our times. He has spent his life immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor and researcher. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's School of Engineering. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes). Taleb refuses all awards and honours as they debase knowledge by turning it into competitive sports.

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