The Black Swan

Front Cover
Random House, Oct 13, 2009 - Forecasting - 366 pages
In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.
 

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Great extension of Fooled By Randomness

User Review  - Banker Bob - Borders

I read Fooled by Randomness first then I read this one. You don't, however, need to read Fooled by Randomness to enjoy The Black Swan. Not only is Taleb a great writer, he is a better "explainer ... Read full review

Deep thoughts and a great read

User Review  - tektonikshift - Borders

I thoroughly enjoyed 'The Black Swan', I read the book and listened to the audio version. I also heard hear several interviews with NNT since publishing TBS. Lots of deep thoughts about how ... Read full review

Contents

UMBERTO ECOS ANTILIBRARY OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION I
3
Yevgenicrs Black Swan
23
One Thousand and One Days or How Not to Be u Sucker
38
Confirmation Shmonfirmalion
53
The Narrative Fallacy
62
Living in the Antechamber or Hope
85
Giacomo Casanovas Untailing Luck
100
The Ludic Fallacy or The Uncertainty of the Nerd
122
THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN
212
The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud
229
The Aesthetics of Randomness
253
The Logic of Fractal Randomness with a Warning
262
Lockes Madmen or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places
274
The Uncertainty ot the Phony
286
Halt and Halt or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295
297
Notes
311

WE JUST CANT PREDICT
136
How io Look for Bird Poop
165
Episiemocracy a Dream
191
Appelles ihe Painter or Whai Do You Do ii
201

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