The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions

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John Wiley & Sons, May 13, 2010 - Business & Economics - 224 pages
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Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting

Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance.

  • Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting
  • Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast
  • Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices
  • Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face
  • Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process

Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.

 

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Contents

Prologue
1
Alternative Approaches to the Problems
17
Forecast Value Added Analysis
81
Forecasting without History
111
of Business Forecasting
133
Implementing a Forecasting Solution
151
Practical First Steps
161
What Management Must Know
175
Epilogue
187
Appendix Forecasting FAQs
193
Index
247
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About the author (2010)

MICHAEL GILLILAND is Product Marketing Manager at SAS Institute and has worked in consu-mer products forecasting for more than twenty years. Prior to joining SAS in 2004, Mike held forecasting management positions in the food, electronics, and apparel industries and served as a consultant. He is a frequent speaker at industry events, has published articles in Supply Chain Management Review, Journal of Business Forecasting, Foresight, and APICS magazine, and was a columnist on "Worst Practices in Business Forecasting" for Supply Chain Forecasting Digest. Mike holds a BA in philosophy from Michigan State University, and master's degrees in philosophy and mathematical sciences from Johns Hopkins University. Follow his blog, The Business Forecasting Deal, at blogs.sas.com/forecasting.

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