The Egyptian economy: a modeling approach
Egypt experienced an economic shift from a managed economic strategy to one of market-oriented resource allocation starting in the 1970s, and in 1987 signed a stabilization program agreement with the International Monetary Fund. This is an overview of these structural changes experienced by the Egyptian economy in the 70s and 80s. The main tool to assess the effectiveness of the policies and to evaluate growth prospects under different policy scenarios is an integrated macroeconomic-energy demand-input/output model. Four different policy scenarios are explored.
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STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE EGYPTIAN ECONOMY
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agricultural sector alternative policy average balance of payments balance of trade budget deficit capital CAPMAS coefficients decline devaluation disaggregated dummy Egypt Egyptian economy Egyptian Pounds employment endogenous variables energy demand energy pricing policy estimated exogenous exports external debt factors of production forecast period foreign GDPMPR government consumption government expenditure government investment gross domestic product impact imports improvement income distribution increase indicates industries input-output tables intermediate inputs macroeconometric matrix monetary money supply multipliers natural gas nominal non-food consumption non-government investment NON-PETROLEUM CHEMICAL o o o o OLS Sample period oooooooooooooo percentage PETROLEUM PGDP policy forecast policy package policy scenario policy variables price deflator private consumption ratio real terms real value added reference case forecast result revenue ro ro ro sectoral value added share Statistics structure terajoules tight policy total output transfer payments U.S. dollars VAEUCR VASRVR wage World Bank