The Geographical Structure of Epidemics

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Clarendon Press, 2000 - Medical - 149 pages
The ways in which the great plagues of the past and present have spread around the world remains only partly understood. Peter Haggett's research over the last thirty years has focused on mapping and modelling the paths by which epidemics spread through human communities. In 1998 this led tohim being invited to give the inaugural lectures in a new series, the Clarendon Lectures in Geography and Environmental Studies. The resulting book, Geographical Structure of Epidemics, presents an accessible, concise, and well illustrated account of how environmental and geographical concepts canbe used to enhance our knowledge of the origins and progress of epidemics, and sometimes to slow to slow or halt their spread.
 

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Contents

Epidemics as Diffusion Waves
1
The work of Tors ten Hagerstand
4
Hagerstrands Monte Carlo diffusion model
6
Applications to epidemiological data
9
The nature of epidemics
10
The burden of communicable disease
12
Measles as a tracker epidemic disease
16
an historical note
21
The limits of historical evidence
74
Carl Saner and geographical speculation
77
Extension of Sauers methods to disease origins
80
Global change and its disease implications
82
Growth and relocation of the human population
85
Changing global land use
87
Global warming
91
The collapse of geographical space
93

Kendall and spatial waves
26
Epidemics as spatial diffusion processes
29
Epidemics on Small Islands
31
Iceland as a laboratory
33
Icelands record of epidemic waves
37
Genereralizations and wave sequences
43
Iceland as a graph
46
predicting epidemic measles waves
47
Measles in Fiji and the southwest Pacific
52
The Fijian outbreak of 1875
53
The demographic impact of the epidemic
59
Indian migration to Fiji
61
Global Origins and Dispersals
67
The geographical question of disease origins
69
Disease implications of global change
95
Containing Epidemic Spread
99
Local elimination and natural breaks in infection
103
The impact of vaccination on epidemic cycles
104
Defensive isolation against epidemics
110
Offensive containment
111
Ring control strategies
115
the smallpox campaigns
119
Global campaigns for other epidemic diseases
121
Poliomyelitis elimination campaigns
126
Conclusions
129
NOTES
131
INDEX
145
Copyright

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About the author (2000)


Peter Haggett is Chairman of the Wellcome Trust's History of Medicine Panel. He has held posts as visiting professor in a dozen North American and Australasian universities, and as visiting scientist at the World Health Organization and the US Centers of Disease Control.

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