The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President
With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.
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2 Turning the Keys to the Presidency
3 Civil War and Reconstruction
4 The Gilded Age
5 Rise and Fall of Progressivism
6 Depression War and Cold War
7 New Directions War and Scandal
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13 Call achieve American ballots Bill Clinton campaign candidate Carter Challenging-party nominee Cleveland Clinton com con Congress conservative contest key convention defeat Demo Despite domestic Eisenhower elec electoral college electoral votes executive party failure favor federal foreign foreign-policy gained George Bush Gerald Ford Herbert Hoover Hoover House seats incumbency key incumbent administration incumbent party Incumbent-party nominee initiatives Iraq Jimmy Carter Kennedy Key 9 La Follette lacked leader long-term economy key lost major mandate key midterm elections military Negative keys Nixon nomination party in power party's per percent policy change policy-change key polls popular vote pre prediction presidential elections programs recession reelection Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan Roosevelt scandal key second term secured Key Senate short-term economy key social unrest social-unrest key Soviet Theodore Roosevelt tion Truman turned Vice President victory voters White House William Howard Taft William Jennings Bryan win rate