The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President

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Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Feb 15, 2008 - Political Science - 216 pages
With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.
 

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Contents

Introduction
1 Logic of the Keys How Presidential Elections Really Work
2 Turning the Keys to the Presidency
3 Civil War and Reconstruction
4 The Gilded Age
5 Rise and Fall of Progressivism
6 Depression War and Cold War
7 New Directions War and Scandal
8 Reagan and Beyond
9 A False Dawn for Democrats
10 The Winds of Political Change Forecast for 2008
11 Lessons of the Keys Toward a New Presidential Politics
Notes
Index
About the Author
Copyright

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About the author (2008)

Allan J. Lichtman is professor of American history at American University.

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