The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the FutureBruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone). Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. |
Contents
What Will It Take to Put You in This Car Today? | 3 |
Game Theory 101 | 10 |
Game Theory 102 | 29 |
Bombs Away | 47 |
Defining the Question | 66 |
Engineering the Future | 86 |
FastForward the Present | 103 |
How to Predict the Unpredictable | 124 |
Fun with the Past | 140 |
Dare to Be Embarrassed | 171 |
The History of Worms or Bali High Bali Low | 203 |
Other editions - View all
The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and ... Bruce Bueno De Mesquita No preview available - 2010 |
The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and ... Bruce Bueno De Mesquita No preview available - 2010 |
Common terms and phrases
agreement al-Qaeda asked Austria-Hungary billion bishop Bonyads Bueno de Mesquita choices Church client clout Columbus commitment costs course Curly deal dealer decision makers Defendant Democrats economic election emissions Enron expected figure firm forecasting fraud future game theory German global warming going greenhouse gas happen hard-liners Hashimi Hitler incentives income influence interests Iran Iraq Iraqi Israeli Jeff Khamenei Kim Jong Kim Jong Il king Kyoto Kyoto Protocol leaders Leopold look Maliki means militants military model's logic Musharraf Mutt negotiations North Korea nuclear Obama outcome Pakistan Palestinian parties peace percent players PML-N political pope position predictions President prisoner's dilemma problem questions revenue risk salience Santangel senior Serbia severe felonies simulated Sparta Spartiates stakeholders strategic sure Taliban things threat tion tourist U.S. attorney United vote