The Demand for Oil Products in Developing Countries, Parts 63-359
World Bank Discussion Paper No. 359. Oil and energy markets have experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades--steep price increases in the 1970s and 1980s followed by a decrease in 1986 and large declines in demand in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. But despite considerable uncertainty about future developments in the world oil market, this paper finds that demand is set to rise in all main regions, particularly in developing countries, led by increasing incomes, population, industrialization, investment, and trade. This study examines the growth in demand for eight major oil products for 37 developing countries over the 1971-93 period, analyzing the relationships and changes over time for income, population, and demand for energy and oil products for each country. It also examines some of the important phenomena that affect oil demand and calculates income and price elasticities for each product in all countries.
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Introduction and Summary
Econometric Analysis of Demand for Eight Oil Products 60
Total and PerCapita
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1993 Snapshots 37 countries 37 developing countries Algeria Argentina asymmetric Bangladesh biomass Brazil Chile China coal Colombia consumers crude oil declined diesel econometric results Ecuador electric power energy and oil Figure FSU & EE fuel share fuel wood gasoline graph growth in per-capita growth rates heavy fuel oil Hong Kong household fuels Income dashed line income elasticity income growth India Indonesia Iran Israel Jamaica jet fuel Jordan Kenya kerosene Koyck Kuwait Libya Malaysia modern energy modern fuels naphtha natural gas Nigeria OECD OECD countries oil price increases oil product demand oil-exporting countries oil's share OPEC & Mexico Pakistan per-capita energy consumption per-capita income Per-Capita Income dashed per-capita oil consumption per-capita oil demand Peru Philippines population real income relatively response to income Saudi Arabia share of energy Singapore South Africa South Korea statistically significant subsidies Syria Taiwan Thailand tons/person total oil consumption Tunisia variable Venezuela