The Determinants of Currency Crises: A Political Economy Approach
This book explores the role of political factors in the occurrence of currency crises, using an eclectic approach that blends case studies, a rigorous theoretical discussion, and econometric analysis.
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Some Clues from History
PoliticalEconomy Crisis Models
The Role of Politics in Crisis Prediction
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0.1 percent-level analysis Argentina associated central bank coalition countries country's credibility crisis indicator crisis model crisis probabilities CRS2 CRS3 currency crises currency peg democracies depends depreciation expectations devaluation developed economic equilibrium effect Eichengreen election electoral emerging market Equation equilibrium exchange rate decision exchange rate policy exchange rate regime fiscal authority fiscal authority's fiscal policy maker fixed exchange rate foreign exchange markets Frieden impact implement incentive increase incumbent independent inflation inflation-aversion interest group investor Leblang left-leaning governments LEFTGOV likelihood lobbying logit loss function macroeconomic measures monetary policy null-hypothesis no difference optimal outcomes output party percent period Peronist POLARIZ policy loss political factors political variables political-economy models preferences private sector Probability of erroneous real exchange rate rejection of null-hypothesis robustness sample Scenario shock significant Specifically spending target stability statistical strategy strong crises studies supply shock survival Table threshold tion typically U.S. dollar veto players Weak Crises