## The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS, Issue 4834 |

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allowing the probability asset choice Ball and Roma Bureau of Economic central parity currencies deﬁne depend Distance rule Distribution of EMS DISTRIBUTION OF EXCHANGE dollar/DM Economic Research EMS band EMS exchange rates exchange rate changes expected utility ﬁlter probability ﬁnd ﬂoating exchange rates ﬂoating rates foreign asset French franc FTP rule Hamilton model independent switching model inside the back instructions inside investor Italian lira Italian lira/DM John Whalley Koedijk low variance Markov-switching model mean and variance mixture model the exchange National Bureau NBER Working Papers normal distribution number of observations observations are outliers optimal choice p-value Papers and Reprints parameters Partial Subscription periods of stability periods of volatility previous section probability of staying quadratic form risk aversion Rule for Classifying speciﬁcally stable period standard deviation stochastic process Table tend to cluster time-varying transition probabilities transition probability model upper band volatile distribution volatile period volatile state occurring volatile week yen/DM