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Development of Election
Basis for Final State Forecasts of
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1948 presidential election accuracy actual vote allocation analysis areas asked assigned assumption attitudes average Based on education basis bias campaign candidate Census committee counties Crossley Crossley's Dewey Truman Wallace effect elec election forecasts election predictions election surveys electoral vote Elmira estimates factors Gallup organization indicated intend to vote inter interviewers issues leaning major polling measure method Negro nonvoters obtained October October 14 October 30 operation party percent percentage points persons pinpoint plan to vote plebiscite political behavior polling organizations polling results population possible pre-election polls pre-election survey presidential election presidential vote probability sample problem procedure proportion Public Opinion questions quota sample Raw figures releases reported Republican secret ballot September September 24 staff studies systematic error Table tabulation Taft-Hartley Act techniques tion Total state sample total vote trend turnout undecided respondents undecided voters voted for Truman voting behavior voting intentions West North Central