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activity agents aggregate Angus Deaton argument assumptions asymmetric information Bank of England Buiter common service competitiveness consumption function costs criticisms Deaton debt diagnostic tests discussion dynamic econometric models Econometrica economic policy economic systems effects empirical equations 1-3 equilibrium estimation existing teams exogenous variables financial markets fiscal foreign exchange markets formulate function fundamental future hypothesis inflation instability institutions interest rates issues Journal of Political KYDLAND labour market Liverpool model Lucas critique macroeconometric models macroeconomic models methodological Minford Monetarism monetary policy money supply operation optimizing behaviour output paper parameters policy analysis policy evaluation policy instruments policy rules policy-invariant predict present private sector problems properties public funds public sector rational expectations reasons reduced form relationships role sample period Science Research Council simulation social SSRC stabilization policy stochastic stochastic process structural equations structural models systematic theoretical theory and method time-inconsistent United Kingdom