Tracking Global Demand for Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt
International Monetary Fund, Dec 3, 2012 - Business & Economics - 62 pages
Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this methodology, it introduces a dataset for 24 major advanced economies that can be used to track US$42 trillion of sovereign debt holdings on a quarterly basis over 2004-11. While recent outflows from euro periphery countries have received wide attention, most sovereign borrowers have continued to increase reliance on foreign investors. This may have helped reduce borrowing costs, but it can imply higher refinancing risks going forward. Meanwhile, advanced economy banks’ exposure to their own government debt has begun to increase across the board after the global financial crisis, strengthening sovereign-bank linkages. In light of these risks, the paper proposes a framework—sovereign funding shock scenarios (FSS)—to conduct forward-looking analysis to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to sudden investor outflows, which can be used along with standard debt sustainability analyses (DSA). It also introduces two risk indices—investor base risk index (IRI) and foreign investor position index (FIPI)—to assess sovereigns’ vulnerability to shifts in investor behavior.
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advanced economy sovereign area debt turmoil assets base risk index Book value Book calculations currency Czech Republic data sources database dataset debt securities Domestic central bank domestic financial stability domestic nonbanks economy sovereign debt euro area countries euro area debt Eurosystem external debt face value Figure Finland foreign banks foreign central banks foreign exchange reserves foreign holdings Foreign Investor Position foreign nonbanks foreign official loans foreign official sector foreign private investors Funding Shock Scenarios global financial crisis government debt government gross debt government securities Greece high-spread euro area holdings of foreign Holdings of Government International Financial Statistics International Monetary Fund investor base risk Ireland Japan Korea Market value Market methodology Norway percent portfolio Portugal refinancing risk reﬂecting risk indicators risk score securities holdings Slovenia SMP holdings sovereign bond Sovereign Funding Shock sovereign investor base sovereign risk Switzerland valuation adjustment value Book value value Market value Zealand