Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy AnalysisThe authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters. |
Contents
Recent Milestones | 6 |
An Overview of Quantitative Policy Analysis | 16 |
The Nature and Sources of Uncertainty | 47 |
Probability Distributions and Statistical Estimation | 73 |
Human Judgment about and with Uncertainty | 102 |
Performing Probability Assessment | 141 |
The Propagation and Analysis of Uncertainty | 172 |
Common terms and phrases
alternative Analytica approach approximation argued assessment assessors atmospheric Bayesian behavior box plot calibration Chapter complex computational confidence interval consider correlation criteria cumulative distribution function cumulative probability decision analysis decision maker depends developed dimensions discrete probability discussion display elicitation Emissions reduction empirical quantities error estimate evaluating EVIU EVPI example expected value expert elicitation expert judgment Figure Fischhoff fractile Henrion heuristic ignoring uncertainty influence diagram involved Latin hypercube sampling linear lognormal loss function mean measure median method of moments module Monte Carlo node normal distribution obtain outcome output overconfidence performance plot policy models possible probabilistic probability density function probability tree problem quantitative policy analysis questions random variable range represent response surface risk analysis sample scenarios sensitivity analysis specific standard statistical strategies structure studies sulfur techniques Total Cost uncertain inputs uncertain quantity uncertain variable uncertainty analysis variance