Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

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Cambridge University Press, 1990 - Business & Economics - 332 pages
The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.
 

Contents

Recent Milestones
6
An Overview of Quantitative Policy Analysis
16
The Nature and Sources of Uncertainty
47
Probability Distributions and Statistical Estimation
73
Human Judgment about and with Uncertainty
102
Performing Probability Assessment
141
The Propagation and Analysis of Uncertainty
172
The Graphic Communication of Uncertainty
220
A Software Tool for Uncertainty Analysis
257
Large and Complex Models
289
The Value of Knowing How Little You Know
307
Index
325
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