Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making: Selected Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Research Conference, Rome, 3–6 September, 1973
Dirk Wendt, C.A. Vlek
Springer Science & Business Media, Dec 31, 1975 - Social Science - 432 pages
Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
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applied approach assessment assessor assumed assumption attributes average Bayesian choice situation cognitive strain commodity conjoint measurement consider correlation credible intervals criteria decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision tasks Decision Theory decomposed decomposition defined described dimensions discussed DM's dynamic decision estimate EU(A evaluation evidence example expected utility expected utility hypothesis experiment experimental film Fishburn frameup frequency gambles given guilt Human independent indifference individual intuitive judgments juror Mathematical MAUT multi-attribute utility multi-attribute utility theory multi-attributed alternatives normative obtained odds optimal outcomes outranking relation paper PEATMOS possible posterior probability predictions preference orderings prior probability prob probability distribution probability forecasts problem procedure Psychology Raiffa Rapoport rare event ratings ratio repertory grid representation riskless risky sample satisficing scale scruples search cost semiorder Slovic statistical subjective probability task complexity techniques theoretical tion trade-off Tversky uncertainty utility function utility models validity value function variables weights wholistic
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