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aggregate inflation rate aggregate real output analyzed average basic model ceteris paribus coefficients competitive neutral competitive position contract period Danish Denmark Denmark and Sweden determined devaluation domestic disturbances domestic export dummy variables economy endogenous exchange rate policy exogenous variables export demand export market share export price export sector export volume Finland and Sweden Finnish first-period impact effects fixed exchange rate foreign competitors foreign currency foreign demand impulses foreign disturbances four countries future contract Icelandic model import industrial countries labor market contracts lagged macroeconomic development markup nominal wage cost Nordic countries oil price shocks optimal control experiments policy rule policy shifts price in foreign product wage cost productivity change quantity disturbances rate of change rate of interest real growth rate reduced relative price elasticities Scandinavian model Section simulation Swedish Table target paths three countries tion trade balance U.S. dollars variations wage cost rate wage formation wage reaction world trade volume