Wall Street Revalued: Imperfect Markets and Inept Central Bankers

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John Wiley & Sons, Sep 22, 2009 - Business & Economics - 256 pages
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In 2000 one of the world’s foremost economists, Andrew Smithers, showed that the US stock market was widely over-priced at its peak and correctly advised investors to sell. He also argued that central bankers should adjust their policies not only in light of expected inflation but also if stock prices reach excessive levels. At the time, few economists agreed with him, today it is hard to find those who would disagree.

In the past central bankers have denied that markets can be valued and that it did not matter if they fell. These two intellectual mistakes are the fundamentals cause of the current financial market crisis. In addition, a lack of understanding by investors as to how to value the market has also resulted in widespread losses.

It is clearly of great importance to everyone that neither these losses nor the current financial chaos should be repeated and thus that the principle of asset valuation should be widely understood.

In this timely and thought-provoking sequel to the hugely successful Valuing Wall Street Andrew Smithers puts forward a coherent and testable economic theory in order to influence investors, pension consultants and central bankers policy decisions so that thy may prevent history repeating itself. Backed by theory and substantial evidence Andrew shows that assets can be valued, as financial markets are neither perfectly efficient nor absurd casinos.


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31 Nominal Bond Yields and PEs
32 Real Bond Yields and PEs
81 The Test of a Measurable and Relatively Stable ‚ Fundamental‚
82 Testing Whether the Ratio of Price Fundamental is Mean Reverting
83 Testing Whether the Criterion Is Justified in Terms of Economic Theory
84 Testing if It Has a Weak Ability to Forecast Future Returns
85 The Close Accord of q and CAPE
111 The US Stock Market as a Test Case
112 The World
Appendix A31 Probabilistic Inference
Appendix A32 Integrating Out Model Uncertainty
A61 Returns Expected Returns and Inflationary Expectations
A62 A Proxy for Inflation Expectations
A63 Why Inflation Errors Affected Bond Returns More in the 20th Century than the 19th

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About the author (2009)

Andrew Smithers is the founder of Smithers & Co., which provides economics-based asset allocation advice to over 100 fund management companies worldwide.† Andrew is a regular contributor in Japan to the Nikkei Veritas. He was a regular contributor to the London Evening Standard and Japan's Sentaku magazine, and has written for many other newspapers and magazines, including the Financial Times, Forbes (US), Sunday Telegraph (UK), Independent on Sunday (UK) and Genron (Japan).† Andrew is an invited contributor to the prestigious Economist's Forum on the FT website.
Andrew is a member of the Advisory Board for the Centre for International Macroeconomics and Finance (CIMF) at Cambridge and has also been a member of the Investment Committee at Clare College, Cambridge since 1998.
Prior to starting his own firm, Andrew was at S.G.Warburg & Co. Ltd. from 1962 to 1989 where he ran the investment management business for some years and which, by the end of his tenure, was the acknowledged market leader. This was subsequently floated off as a separate company, Mercury Asset Management, which was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1998.

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