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Real Employment and Real Wages
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actual change aggregate demand pressures Augmented Phillips Curve behavior of inflation Bureau of Labor changes in labor consumer price inflation corporate sector costs and import current business cycle current cycle decline in import decline in labor's Employment Cost Index excess aggregate demand Figure Gali and Gertler IMF staff estimates import prices inflation puzzle labor share variable Labor Statistics labor's share Lown and Rich marginal labor costs Mean Absolute Error Mean Squared Error modified Phillips curve NAIRU national income null hypothesis out-of-sample forecasts Phillips curve specifications previous cycle previous four quarters price of imports price Phillips curve proxy for labor rate of unemployment real marginal cost regressors relative price restraining consumer price restraining price inflation returns to scale role in restraining Root Mean Squared Rotemberg and Woodford serial correlation share in national slowdown Supply Shocks Theil Inequality Coefficient unem unemployment gap unit labor costs wage Phillips curve wages and salaries zero