Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under UncertaintyMonographic compilation of introductory lectures on decision making analysis under uncertainty - covers analysis of basic problems, uncertain payoffs and biased measurements, use of judgmental probability, samples and statistical analysis, risk sharing and group decisions, etc., and some further perspectives. Annotated bibliography pp. 298 to 300 and diagrams. |
Contents
Your Basic Problem | 1 |
Analysis of Your Basic Problem | 7 |
Uncertain Payoffs and Biased Measurements | 39 |
Copyright | |
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a₁ analyze assume average Bayesian behavior branch C₁ chance forks Chapter choice choose consider decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision-flow diagram density function depend discuss draw e₁ EMV'er example expected utility expected value experimentation and action exponential utility Figure form of analysis formal give given indifference curves individuals interval joint conditional evaluation joint utility evaluation jointly acceptable judgmental probability labeled lectures likelihood function Likelihood Principle lottery mathematical maximize monetary non-EMV'er normal form obtain optimal strategy option outcome pair Pareto-optimal partition payoff perfect information possible posterior probability prefer prior prior probability prize prob probability assessments probability assignments probability distribution procedure randomized strategy red ball risk sharing sample shown in Fig situation Smith statistical strategy for experimentation Suppose Table tion toss tree true proportion u₁ uncertain quantities utility function utility value zero