Taking Chances: Winning with ProbabilityTaking Chances presents an entertaining and fascinating exploration of probability, revealing traps and fallacies in the field. It describes and analyzes a remarkable variety of situations where chance plays a role, including football pools, the Lottery, TV games, sport, cards, roulette, coins, and dice. The book guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favor. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" and "The Weakest Link", plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers. |
Contents
1 What is probability? | 1 |
2 Lotteries | 13 |
3 Football Pools Premium Bonds | 41 |
4 One coin many games | 54 |
5 Dice | 73 |
6 Games with few choices | 95 |
7 Waiting waiting waiting | 128 |
8 Lets play best of three | 151 |
13 Lucky for somemiscellanea | 271 |
14 Probability for lawyers | 299 |
Appendix I Counting | 321 |
Appendix II Probability | 327 |
Appendix III Averages and variability | 339 |
Appendix IV Goodnessoffit tests | 349 |
Appendix V The Kelly strategy | 357 |
Solutions to test yourself quizzes | 361 |
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Common terms and phrases
ahead Appendix average number Benford's law Bernoulli trials best strategy bets better birthday Blue bookies bookmakers calculations cards casino chance of winning Chapter choices choose Colin column combinations contest correct answer count dealer Dettori dice digit distribution double draw eight equally exactly example expect fair coin favour figure five formula four frequencies gamblers geometric distribution give goals guess hand happens Hawk Hawk and Dove Heads hold horse independent jackpot lead least less look lose Lottery match million mixed strategy National Lottery odds odds ratio offer opponent outcomes pair payoff payout play player Poisson distribution possible Premium Bonds prize probability punters race random Roy's saddle point score sequence shows six numbers soccer Spades spins spread betting stake success Suppose Table Tails target throws tickets total chance total number units winner winning chance zero